RUP Signal Update: Minor Divergence Detected ⚠️
Quick recap on the RUP divergence signal:
This is a risk signal that has appeared at the top of every BTC cycle so far, with a 100% hit rate to date.
Full intro: x.com/market_beggar/status/187...…
Building on my previous analysis (see quoted post below) where I mentioned RUP was attempting a reversal, here’s the latest data update: RUP is now flashing a minor divergence signal 👇
Over the past two weeks, BTC’s daily chart has been basically flat—price chopping up and down in a tight range. Whenever the market gets like this, it’s a patience test for both bulls and bears.
But even so, a divergence signal that’s never failed is quietly brewing...
As shown in the chart, I’ve been tracking RUP divergence on Twitter both before the early-year local top and throughout recent risk signals.
On 7/18, I tweeted about the RUP divergence (see red dot in pic):
BTC broke its 5/22 high with a new ATH on 7/14, but RUP didn’t follow with a new high—divergence confirmed‼️
Now, this signal is showing up again on a lower timeframe:
As highlighted in the red box in the latest chart, BTC made two local highs on 7/14 and 7/22, but RUP lagged again, failing to break its 7/14 level.
✏️Note: Prices are based on BTC daily closes.
In my system, minor RUP divergences alone aren’t enough to call a cycle top, and they’re more fragile (easier to invalidate).
But they do add weight to any major RUP divergence.
For reference, check out my high-frequency RUP tracking series from earlier this year:
x.com/market_beggar/status/188...…
x.com/market_beggar/status/188...…
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Finally, based on this signal and the Realized Profit data mentioned below, I increased leverage on my “Top Hunter Plan” short position (x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…) from 1.07x to 1.11x yesterday. Both entries were around 118K.
Top Hunter Plan summary:
Using the 1x coin-margined short setup I used for the top escape earlier this year, I plan to scale final leverage to 1.15~1.25x for a proper short exposure.
(See my hedge short from earlier this year: x.com/market_beggar/status/189...…)
Adding size was part of my pre-planned strategy, but to be clear, I still don’t see a clear top structure on the chart yet.
A plan is a plan, so I’ll stick to it with discipline.
I don’t know how it ends—if I’m wrong, I’ll take the L.
All my content is just sharing my trading thoughts, NFA 🙏
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📝 Notes for new followers:
1️⃣ I’m aiming for the macro BTC cycle top, not just a local high.
2️⃣ I use two main systems: a cyclical spot system and a swing contract system.
3️⃣ This series is about the spot system’s top escape/short strategy.
4️⃣ I exited spot around 103K earlier this year and have been earning funding ever since.
5️⃣ I’m not a perma-bear—on 4/9 I publicly went all-in on US stocks (x.com/market_beggar/status/190...…), but I do think BTC is near a cycle top.
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📚 Related Reading:
Top Hunter Plan (1): US Capital Sentiment Curve Divergence
x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…
Top Hunter Plan (2): 100% Win Rate RUP Divergence Signal
x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…
Top Hunter Plan (3): What an Overheated AVIV Heatmap Means
x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…
Top Hunter Plan (4): Realized Profit Starts Printing
x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…
Top Hunter Plan (5): Bullish News—Exploding Extreme Levels
x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…
Emergency Update: US Capital Sentiment Curve Turning Point?
x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…
Market Barometer RUPL (I) - Data Intro & Bottom-Fishing Strategies
x.com/market_beggar/status/187...…
Market Barometer RUPL (II) - Ultimate Top Signal & Cycle Top Deep Dive
x.com/market_beggar/status/187...…
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