Moderator: Alex, Research Partner at Mint Ventures
Guests: Colin, free trader on-chain data researcher; Chain Nomad, professional on-chain investor
Hello everyone, welcome to WEB3 Mint To Be initiated by Mint Ventures. Here, we clarify facts, explore reality, and find consensus in the WEB3 world through continuous questioning and in-depth thinking. We clarify the logic behind hot topics, provide insights that penetrate the events themselves, and introduce multiple perspectives.
Alex : Today we have two guests, both of whom are old friends of ours. The first one is Colin, who is a familiar on-chain analyst who has dabbled in both US stocks and cryptocurrencies. The other one is Chain Nomad, who is also my friend. He previously participated in our episode on Meme and shared with us a lot of thoughts and insights on Meme. Please introduce yourselves to us again.
Colin : Hello everyone, my name is Colin. I run the Twitter account called Mr. Berg. I am very happy to be invited by Alex to come to the show again and express my opinions. Thank you.
Chain Nomad : Hello everyone, I am Chain Nomad. I entered the circle in 2023 and have been focusing on the primary market since then. The income from the primary market was basically exchanged for Bitcoin in the first half of the bull market, and for U in the second half. It was roughly like this. In this round, I basically paid attention to and participated in the primary hot spots or some major hot spots in the market. In this process, I also summarized and learned some experiences and lessons. I look forward to sharing them with you today.
Judgment and response strategies for the current stage
Alex : Let's get into the official chat session today. The first question is closely related to each of our current investment operations, that is, what do you think of the current cycle stage? What stage do you think the current crypto bull market is in, whether it is for Bitcoin or other assets? Based on this judgment, what is your current strategy and position?
Colin : Okay. Personally, when defining the so-called Bitcoin cycle, I mainly use the indicators or signals in the field I am good at, that is, on-chain analysis, to define whether we are in the early, middle, or late stages of the cycle. I remember that the first time I participated in the show was in mid-February this year. At that time, I talked about some of my views on this topic. Today happens to be a good time to review it.
First of all, from the end of last year to the beginning of this year, I think BTC is very close to the end of this cycle. The reason is that the signal that appears at every top in history has appeared at that time. I know that many people may not agree with this logic, because if you look at it according to the normal four-year cycle, the peak should be at the end of this year, around September to December. But I have also written an article explaining this matter before. If we go back to 2021, four years ago, the so-called first top actually appeared in April at that time-because there were two tops that year. Almost all the top signals occurred in April 2021, not the second top in November.
In the current cycle, the same situation is actually happening again. I dare not say that there will be a second top now or in the near future, but the current situation is basically the same as that year. In other words, we triggered the top signals of almost all the on-chain analysis that I monitored at the beginning of this year. At that time, it fell from a high of about 110,000 to 74,000 in March and April, and then rose to the current high. At the second top in 2021, some signals also appeared. The signals at that time were quite special because most of the signals had been triggered at the first top. Including some divergences in the amount of capital inflows, vertical rises, trends that are not too callback or too sideways, as well as AVIV overheating, huge concentrated realized profits, RUP divergences, etc. If we compare now with the second top in 2021, all these signals are currently reappearing.
Of course, each cycle is completely different. The biggest difference in this cycle is that there has been a structural change in the participants. Simply put, many institutions have come in. Many companies follow MicroStrategy's example to make Bitcoin reserves, and even Ethereum's strategic reserves have begun to appear recently. If I define the current cycle stage from my previous perspective based on on-chain analysis, I still tend to think that it has entered the end and is currently rhyming with the second peak trend of 2021.
Under this premise, I will answer the second question, which is the current position and strategy. I mentioned before when I came to the show that my view on the whole year of 2025 is relatively conservative. Whether from some conditions in the circle or the entire macro market, such as Trump's imposition of tariffs after taking office and clamoring to fire Powell, etc., in such a big environment, the difficulty of operation will be much greater than in 2024. In terms of positions, I now divide them into two parts: the first is the Crypto part. At the beginning of the year, when BTC reached 103,000, I had already cleared my positions and hedged with 1x coin-based short orders to receive an annualized return of about 7%-10% Funding Fee. Now the price has reached a new high, and it has risen above the position where I escaped from the top. Some bottom signals have also begun to appear slowly, but they have not yet fully formed. My current strategy is to adopt a short short plan with a lower leverage, and the leverage is expected to be controlled between 1.15-1.25 times. The other part is US stocks. I am more Buddhist about US stocks, and I have already taken back my full position in April this year. I remember mentioning this on the show in May this year, and I have no plans to change this part of the position. The above is my overall view at present.
Alex : Okay. Colin just reviewed his previous judgment logic for the current stage and also talked about his latest situation. Basically, he still maintains his previous judgment. Let me add a note here. The reason why we invited these two guests today is that their operating styles are completely different and the types of targets they focus on are also very different. The next speaker, the chain nomad, is more good at discovering primary opportunities, opportunities on the chain. Let him talk about it below.
Chain Nomad : Okay, the host just mentioned that my own trading style is more inclined to focus on emotions and the market. I will mainly share from the perspective of the primary level, because the sharing of the guest Colin on the secondary level is more professional, and I don’t have much experience to share on the secondary level. From the perspective of the primary level, I can make a general judgment: it is definitely not a primary bull market now.
It has been a little over two years since I entered the market in 2023. I have experienced, for example, the speculation of inscriptions in the BTC ecosystem, or the speculation of Meme coins at the beginning of this year. It is obvious that the flow from outside the market has entered this market. Not only is there speculation by funds on the market, but there is also off-market funds flowing into the primary market. This feeling is very obvious. But now I think this market is relatively deserted, far from the feeling of a primary bull market. From the perspective of the secondary market, not only me, but many primary players, including those who speculate in Altcoin, also have a common feeling: BTC and Altcoin, or the primary market, are relatively separated in this cycle.
BTC is rising alone, and sometimes the Altcoin or the primary market do not follow the rise of BTC at all. So, this is how I analyze and judge the bull market in the primary market. Regarding positions, about 90% of my positions have been converted to USDT, leaving only 10% of BTC for long-term holding. I don’t plan to buy it back at this position. The information sources I received, including very powerful secondary traders, or some OGs in the past crypto, I have received a comprehensive information that everyone has turned from letting go to defending. This is also my current situation.
Alex: As a very active first-level player, what is your current work status or daily time allocation?
Nomad on the chain : This is still in combination with the market. I pay more attention to the liquidity on the chain. In the past week or two, the liquidity on the chain has warmed up a bit, so my own working hours have also increased accordingly. For example, when the chain was very quiet a while ago, I basically only spent one or two hours a day to check the information to see if there are any big opportunities worth participating in recently. For example, the Pump a few days ago, I paid attention to it and participated in it. But I chose to give up some other PVP opportunities on the chain. Because I think that the first-level should pay attention to the investment-output ratio, that is, the cost-effectiveness. Sometimes the market trend is not right, or the time is not right, you put more energy but lose money.
Alex : This is also the current basic status of the top players around you, or the masters on the chain, right?
Chain Nomad : Yes, didn’t 0xsun say a classic saying, “Main players don’t play garbage time”? Something like that.
Changes in investment difficulty in this cycle
Alex : Got it. Let’s talk about the second question today. I know Colin is an investor who has experienced several rounds of crypto cycles. For you, do you think the difficulty of investing in this round is higher or lower than in the past few rounds? What is the reason behind it?
Colin : Okay. I personally think that if we look at the entire market as a comprehensive assessment, the difficulty has not changed much. Because making money in the financial market is a very difficult thing, especially when we want to earn excess returns, that is, Alpha. As we just talked about, I think the most special thing about BTC in this cycle is its independent upgrade, that is, its uniqueness. It seems that it is the only one rising in the entire market, even ETH is outdone. Another strange situation is that Trump was elected and brought about a tariff war in 2025. These two things will have a great impact on anyone operating in the market. As the market matures, many less mature targets, that is, those that can be hyped up simply by funds, will gradually be eliminated.
Therefore, I am not too surprised by BTC's independent upgrade. As for the tariff war, many people will care, but I think if you are a long-term investor in BTC, then this matter is a noise. For example, if you are a holder and have held BTC since 2022, 2021, or even earlier, you will feel particularly satisfied in this cycle. Because in the past few cycles, you may hold BTC, but watch the Altcoin in other people's hands rise dozens or hundreds of times, which will disturb your psychology. But if you are a holder today and you have not sold at all in this round, you will feel very satisfied. For you, your difficulty may be lower. Because the BTC you hold has been rising, while other coins have not performed well, and are even falling.
If we have to talk about the difficulty, it will definitely increase with the entry of institutions. Our opponents are no longer those old OGs or old whales, but those hedge institutions or quantitative funds that have been in the traditional financial market for decades. Their entry has made the market more mature, and the maturity of the market has further attracted more institutions to participate. This is a cyclical process. As a result of this process, the volatility of BTC will become much lower, and the difficulty of hunting Alpha will increase. But as I just mentioned, if you just want to earn BTC's Beta, that is, simply buy and hold, then I don't think the difficulty of the current market will increase significantly for you.
Alex : I see. In fact, this show is the second episode of the theme "My experience and lessons in this cycle". I also invited two friends to talk about this topic in the last show. Their feedback at the time was that this round was obviously more difficult. Colin's feedback was that it was okay, not obviously more difficult. We can compare these two answers. Colin's words contain a small hidden premise, that is, if you are a BTC holder, then you will find it not so difficult in this round, or even easier. Because most of the funds in this round, including the improvement of fundamentals, are actually focused on BTC. But for many investors who pursue higher Alpha, in this cycle, especially in the first half, many people still pin their hopes on cottages, but the performance of cottages is not good. Then please let Chain Nomads talk about this issue again. What do you think has changed in the difficulty of this cycle compared to when you first came into contact with crypto assets in the last round?
Chain Nomad : I think this is a very good question, especially for first-tier players. Sometimes when you are doing first-tier trading, you will hear a lot of different voices: some people say that the first-tier market has become more difficult, and some people say that it is so-and-so compared to before. At this time, a very important word is involved - bias. For first-tier players, bias is very fatal. If you look at it with bias, you will be far away from the opportunity to make money. Because in the first-tier market, you can always see those people on Twitter who are creating gods no matter what the market is like.
Even in a volatile market, such as when BTC did not pull out a unilateral trend some time ago, there were still many people on Twitter who were calling themselves gods. For example, Aoying was a popular secondary player some time ago, and he also made good results in a volatile market. I also tracked some of his trading logic, or his own trading system. Not to mention the opportunity to play Meme some time ago, or to play Inscriptions earlier. You will find that at different stages, there will always be opportunities in the primary market that can make you earn many times alpha, and there will always be people who can seize these opportunities. I was in a small group some time ago and gave an example to the group members: the primary market is especially like a carriage, pulling a whole car of gold bricks to the sky. And we players are like citizens on the side of the road, picking up gold nuggets that fall from this carriage that ascends to the sky. These alpha opportunities or Memes were covered by the cloth on the carriage at the beginning.
As it gradually ascends to the sky, the cloth slowly slides off, the market value continues to increase, and the gold nuggets on the car continue to fall. And we, the players in the primary market, are picking up gold nuggets on the side. There will always be such a carriage passing by, and all we can do is try to get close to it and get close to the market opportunities. So I think whether it is a bull market or a bear market, no matter what stage it is, there will always be some good opportunities in the primary market that you can seize. I have been in the circle since 2023, and I have experienced some bull-bear conversions in the past two years. But I have always believed that there will be a steady stream of new opportunities in the primary market. I also have this view now, that the primary market is a market that can help people grow from 100,000 to 100 million.
Alex : You just mentioned in your analogy that the opportunities in the primary market are like a carriage, which was initially covered with cloth. For players who want to seize the opportunity, most people cannot identify whether the carriage covered with cloth contains gold bricks or some worthless waste at the beginning. You also mentioned that in the past round of the primary market, there were many other opportunities such as inscriptions and memes. In terms of your physical experience, has the difficulty of approaching these carriages, identifying them, and picking up gold nuggets from them changed?
Nomads on the Chain : I think this change should be viewed in conjunction with the narrative. For example, if the Heavenly Court hopes to requisition a batch of goods from the lower world, the number of carriages leading to the Heavenly Court will increase. Just like the BTC ecosystem or the meme ecosystem some time ago. When there is a narrative, its wealth-creating effect and opportunities will be greater. It is always easier to pick up more gold nuggets when ten carriages pass by you than when only one carriage passes by. This goes back to the timing and trend we talked about in the previous question, which is also more important in the primary market. When the trend comes, you have to spend more energy, focus more, and invest more efficiently in this matter to make more money. When there is no trend, make yourself more stable and cautious. Even if you don’t pick up more gold nuggets, at least don’t let the gold nuggets you have picked up scatter on the ground.
Alex : Let me summarize your answer just now. First, you are very optimistic and open-minded, and believe that first-level opportunities always exist. Therefore, you should keep paying attention to the market. Second, even if the form of these opportunities and the narrative behind them are constantly changing, you believe that the possibility of identifying them, approaching them, and profiting from them always exists. Even if it comes in various forms, there are still opportunities for ordinary people to seize them. So you are not negative and think that it is more difficult now.
Chain Nomad : Yes, I think that especially for players in the primary market, don’t give yourself such psychological hints. We need to distinguish between taking a gamble and defending, but no matter what, we must remain open to opportunities and reject prejudice. Prejudice is a taboo in the primary market. Once you look at the market with prejudice, the opportunity to make money will definitely stay away from you.
The most correct operation in this cycle
Alex : OK, let's talk about the third question. This cycle has been going on since 2003, and we can assume that it has not yet completely ended. So what was the most correct investment operation or strategy you made during this cycle? Can you share your thinking logic and background at that time?
Chain Nomad : For this round of the most correct operation and strategy, I have roughly summarized two major directions. The first one, which I just mentioned, is the "leading strategy". Let's first say that there are narratives coming out, such as the BTC ecosystem, the Meme ecosystem, etc. We should participate in as many leading targets as possible in these sectors, participate in those targets with strong consensus, and try to put our positions in them. For example, some leaders in the inscriptions, such as ordi, sats, or some new protocol leaders, have higher multiples, liquidity, and market value ceilings. When we speculated on Meme, some leading coins of platform coins and leading coins of AI narrative concepts actually had the highest multiples, market value, and liquidity. So in this round of the primary market, the more valuable or correct operation for me is to seize more opportunities for leading coins and participate less in some second- and third-tier projects. Isn't there a classic saying - the first-tier is iron, and the second-tier is changing. The second-tier is very changeable, but the leader that everyone has the most consensus on and is unanimously optimistic about in the market actually has greater potential. You can participate in other new IPO opportunities, but when this narrative starts to trend upward, I will use the profits I have made to continuously increase my position in the leading stocks. When it reaches a satisfactory stage in my mind, I will cash out the entire stock.
The second point is that a senior taught me when I was participating in the primary market, which I think is very valuable, that is, dynamic rebalancing. This is really important for primary players. You can think of it as the first half and the second half of the bull market. When I participated in these primary market opportunities in the first half of the bull market, whether it was the BTC chain, the Ethereum chain or the SOL chain, I would stage the income brought by the primary chain. For example, every week or half a month, do a dynamic rebalancing and reconfigure my primary position. For example, I set it at the beginning that BTC should account for 50% of the total position, the primary position should account for 30%, and the liquidity USDT should account for 20%. Through such staged rebalancing, the position structure can be healthier and the drawdown can be smaller. In the second half, you can gradually reduce the BTC position, configure more positions to USDT, and the primary position will also be smaller. In this process, your primary income will be continuously converted into BTC and U, thereby avoiding large drawdowns due to drastic market fluctuations. Therefore, when trading in the primary market, you must do dynamic rebalancing. Because many times, you think that the K-line is flying, how much floating profit, how much pocketed, are actually three different things. Dynamic rebalancing can keep your position in the primary market healthy and make you more rational when making decisions.
Alex : I understand. In fact, we set a discipline and use it to manage some of our human weaknesses. Next, let Colin talk about it.
Colin : I think I started to build BTC positions in batches at the very beginning of this cycle, probably from September to December 2023. At that time, I operated according to my own spot cycle system, that is, some on-chain signals. Although I didn't copy at the bottom, because I was probably still affected by market sentiment at the time, I was a little afraid to act. But I still invested in BTC at a later time based on the signals and my own trading plan. This transaction has been held from the end of last year to the beginning of this year. This transaction has brought me the greatest return in the past one to two years, because Bitcoin is a standout in this cycle.
If I have to say, I liquidated my Bitcoin at the beginning of the year. Although looking back now, I miss the pump the rise from 103,000 to the present, but in fact, I carefully reviewed the situation and found that my income during this period was only the funding fee. Even if I had not liquidated my Bitcoin at the beginning of the year, I might not be able to achieve better results now. The reason is that, as another guest just said, if we spend more time and effort to trade at the wrong time, we may not necessarily make more money, but may lose money. I agree with this point of view. My system and judgment told me at the end of last year that 2025 would be a difficult and hellish year.
So I chose to liquidate my position at that time and switched to a strategy to earn Funding Fee, which actually helped me adjust my mentality. Otherwise, if I still held my position at that time, or even fully invested in BTC spot like before, I might have made more bad operations due to the increased difficulty of the external environment. Therefore, for this transaction, although I did miss the pump the top increase, if I go back to the beginning of the year, I will still make the same choice, otherwise my mentality and operations may be distorted.
Another operation I think is relatively good is in early April this year. At that time, the market was in a very serious panic because of tariffs. Not only the Bitcoin market, but also the US stock market had a similar situation. I observed a very interesting phenomenon at that time, which I can share with you here. Usually, when we look at the three major US stock indexes, their fluctuations are usually very stable, and they may rise or fall by 1-2% within a small range. However, on weekdays from the first week to the second week of April, the index fluctuations at the opening of the US stock market were so exaggerated that the market seemed to be broken. For example, the index may rise by 3% first, and then turn to a sharp drop, and the drop may reach 5%. Just from the index itself, it can be felt that there is excessive panic in the market.
So I took back all the U.S. stock positions that I had cleared before. There was another interesting observation point at that time, that is, we have a national security fund in Taiwan, China, which will announce its entry to the public under certain circumstances. If you review the history, you will find that the time point when the National Security Fund announces its entry is almost always a relatively good position in the Taiwan stock market, and its winning rate has been very high in history. What’s interesting is that the time point it chooses not only corresponds to a good entry point for the Taiwan stock market, but also a good entry point for the U.S. stock market. I don’t know the specific reason, maybe they are really good. But at that time, in addition to observing the abnormal fluctuations of the index, I also saw this news, so I decided to take back the full position of U.S. stocks on April 9. Later, it was indeed proved that I received a good low point, and the subsequent market has been rising all the way to now.
I think this is my best operation this year. Although it does not belong to crypto, this part is worth sharing. If you see similar situations in the future, such as extremely exaggerated fluctuations in stock market indices, you can observe whether the market has entered a stage of excessive panic. This is an extreme image that should not appear. Once it appears, you can pay attention to it.
Alex : I understand. I feel that the huge fluctuations in the stock market and the entry of the National Security Fund mentioned by Colin just now are all caused by the fact that emotions are already in chaos and prices are very deviated. This is not only in the stock market, but also in the bear market of the previous cycle, such as when Luna collapsed in May 2020 and when Ftx collapsed in November 2022, Ethereum may fall by 20% in one day. These are all times of extreme emotions. If you buy in at that time, as long as the relative position is at a relatively low historical level, you will have good results in the long run.
Wrong operations and experience in this cycle
Alex : Let's move on to the next question. What do you think is the worst mistake you have made in your investment so far in this cycle? What is your summary and review?
Colin : Okay, I actually talked about this question with Alex in my last episode. I think the most painful experience in this cycle is my personal over-trust in Ethereum's second place. Although ETH is still the second place, I had already started to build a position in Bitcoin in the early and middle stages of the bull market. In the early and middle stages, I wanted to earn some Alpha through ETH. My logic at the time was: ETH and BTC are highly correlated, and ETH is more volatile. Since the bull market has just started, ETH should have more room to rise than BTC. So I exchanged some BTC spot for ETH, which is equivalent to long on the ETH/BTC exchange rate. In hindsight, this operation was a complete failure. Although I didn't lose money, I missed a lot of potential rewards. If I remember correctly, in the first half of last year, the ETH/BTC exchange rate basically fluctuated around 0.05, and it has been going down since the big drop on August 5. At that time, I lost potential rewards, that is, opportunity costs. At that time, I thought Ethereum was the second place, which was unmatched. Its market value is also far behind the third and fourth place. At that time, Bitcoin passed the so-called ETF, and Ethereum was also hyping this expectation, and even passed it later. I was a little too FOMO at the time, thinking that I wanted to replicate the beautiful trend of Bitcoin after passing the ETF, so Ethereum probably has a chance to have a similar trend.
But the reality did not turn out as I wished. After the ETF was listed, it became a channel for the old funds to ship out. I think this lesson is something that everyone should realize and keep in mind: in our current cryptocurrency market, except for Bitcoin, we really cannot have too strong faith in any other currency. Faith is something like a double-edged sword. For example, if you believe in and hold a certain currency, you will make a lot of money, hundreds, thousands, or even tens of thousands of times. But because its odds are very good, it will inevitably lead to a low winning rate. This is a relationship of mutual growth and decline. If you encounter a trading opportunity today, with high odds and high winning rate, then this opportunity will definitely have another problem: it occurs very rarely. It is impossible for all three conditions to be met at the same time. Another problem with faith is that it may cause your asset curve to have too large MDD (Max DrawDown), that is, the retracement is too large. If the MDD is too large, it is a big taboo in our trading field. Even if it soars back later, what if it doesn't? Because your winning rate is very low, once you fail, for example, your assets lose 80%, then you have to multiply it five times again to get your money back. This is a lesson I learned myself.
I think at the current stage of the market, apart from Bitcoin, there is no other currency that you can really have a strong belief in, and then buy and hold, and keep holding it, including Ethereum. In December last year, when Trump was elected, I cleared out this batch of Ethereum at around 4,000 based on some events and data. At that time, I was actually very unwilling, because it didn't even touch the previous high. At that time, I also thought that Trump's election would push Ethereum to a new high, but it didn't happen. After all, at that time, the signals and some data already supported my selling, so although I was unwilling, I still executed the sell. In hindsight, this operation was correct and made up for the opportunity cost of my previous losses.
Chain Nomad : This question is really paved with money, and behind each point is the experience of losing a lot of money. The first point I want to share is: Don’t bet on the rise and fall when doing level one. Because the core of level one is to find some asymmetric opportunities, that is, those opportunities with high winning rate and high odds. If we bet on whether it will rise or fall in the future, or bet on what the dealer will do in the process of judging opportunities, the higher the bet, the lower the winning rate of your judgment of this opportunity. Looking back on my past experience of losing money, it is often because the bet is too high, not based on my own trading logic or judgment. You are betting or guessing the future trend, which is often unreliable.
The second point is a very fatal problem for novice players: no strict stop loss, or no stop loss. This problem is not only reflected in the opening of positions, but also very critical when selling or taking profits. For example, when I was trading Trumpcoin before, I used several accounts to participate in the transaction, some of which were constantly selling, and some were set as more diamond accounts. One of the more diamond accounts rose about 20 times from the purchase to the high point, and the income was very considerable. However, because the concept of stop loss or strict selling when the price falls below the point is not firm, or it is not well executed, the income has a huge retracement, which is really painful. Therefore, when doing level 1, novices must pay attention to the problem of stop loss, not only the cost stop loss, but also the profit stop loss.
The third point is that investment research is not thorough, which is also a very fatal problem. Sometimes you think you have done investment research, but when you look back later, you find that it is actually very superficial and incomplete. For example, before you buy a target, have you made clear the reason for buying it? Have you decided how much position you want to buy? How long are you going to hold it? What is your judgment on its expected return? Have you systematically browsed the information sources of this project, powerful traders, monitored KOL groups, and public information on Twitter? Or did you conduct sufficient research before selling, and did you repeat the steps just now? I think this is very critical. Sometimes, we think we have done investment research, but we are actually deceiving ourselves. Failure to do sufficient investment research will also affect the actions of buying and selling.
The above are the three most important points in my opinion. There are also some minor points: for example, when buy the dips or covering a position, you must control your position, and don’t cover more when the price drops, which is also very fatal; don’t participate in trading when you are doing other things, such as when you are shopping outside or playing games and you see an opportunity and participate, the trading efficiency at this time is often very poor, and it is also particularly easy to lose money. These are probably the more painful experiences.
Alex: Okay, the sharing is very detailed, very good. Originally, our next question was, what is the most critical experience or investment insight you have gained in this round? Is there anything that you think can be reused in the next round? But in fact, you two have already mentioned many similar insights in your previous answers. In addition to the part just mentioned, if you want to summarize your most important take away or insight in this round in one or two sentences, what would it be?
Colin : I think there is another point worth sharing, which is a phenomenon I saw in March last year. At that time, BTC rose all the way to 73,000 and 74,000, which was the first wave of the main rise. But if you compare the sentiment of the crypto market with that of the US stock market, you will find a very special phenomenon: the US stock market was actually sideways at that time, not so enthusiastic, not like when it really rose, it went up steadily all the way. But the BTC market sentiment at that time was very hot. Another very special situation is that few people may have the impression that at that point in time, the expectation of interest rate cuts in the entire macro environment was actually suppressed quite severely. The US stock market has already responded to this matter, but the Bitcoin market has not responded at all. So I felt a little weird at the time. Therefore, in April, I actually sold a large part of my Altcoin positions. Everyone knows the subsequent trend. Bitcoin fluctuated sideways from March to October, while Altcoin chose to go out of a bad bear market trend during the same period.
In this observation, I would like to mention two points: the first is that we don't have to focus only on the information or sentiment within the circle. We can try to compare the sentiment within the circle with the sentiment in other markets, such as the stock market, commodity market, or bond market. I think this is a pretty good observation angle. Another is that if we think the bull market is not over yet, but we want to take some protective measures, in addition to partially taking profits, we should first keep your Bitcoin in the target selection; secondly, eliminate some relatively weak targets. For example, if you originally configured five Altcoin, you can eliminate the weaker ones first. We can prioritize the elimination of high-risk and weak ones. This is also a way to reduce the overall risk. The above two points are good observation angles in my opinion.
Chain Nomad : Actually, I have prepared a point for this question that I think is very important. If I only say one, it is that you must settle your own trading system. I think this is a very critical issue, or even the only critical issue, to distinguish whether a first-level player can achieve A8 or even A9. In fact, I feel very deeply about this point. Whether it is myself or those powerful traders I observe, such as 0xsun, Dayu, Leng Jing, and Aoying, they all have their own very strong trading systems. You can feel their trading logic very clearly. When we see an opportunity, we often find some investment opportunities from emotions or logic, and then use our past trading habits to respond, to verify our previous trading logic and trading system, and finally lock in profits. This is probably the process. But this system or logic is very experience-based. For example, when I entered the circle in 2023, I had already observed 0xsun, Leng Jing, Laser Cat, James Monkey Brother, and Wang Xiaoer. Have they always been so powerful? No. At the beginning of 2023, Leng Jing Da On-Chain Meme was also very PVP, and it was also a grass-roots team. But why can they seize the big opportunities in Trump's coin, or the subsequent meme wave? Because they have already settled the system before. When liquidity comes and the water pours down, there are more opportunities, and they can better seize the opportunities and expand their victory. I think this is the biggest difference between A8 and A9's first-level traders and PVP first-level traders. If we don't have such experience in the past, is there any way to make up for it? I think there is. For example, taking the coin Pump as an example, its reaction time after opening is very short. What if you don't have a very solid trading system and can't react quickly? There is also a solution, that is, you can fully preset different scripts for the next time. If you think about various possibilities and make a plan, then you will be more prepared when you participate in the opening, and you will be more targeted. This can make up for the lack or imperfection of the trading system to a certain extent. I think it is also very simple to improve, that is, to fully review the market after each transaction. I also realized some time ago that writing daily reports is very important for first-level players. I have seen some first-level players, including the host Alex, have the habit of writing daily reports. In this process, you are actually honing your summary and review of events and trading actions. The proven correct logic will remain in your mind, and the proven mistakes will also form lessons learned and remain in your mind, so I think both of these are very important.
I also want to share a passage that I think is closely related to this topic. It is a four-sentence passage that I saw in an article before. I think it is very classic: Risk, whether it is uncontrollable factors such as changes in the times, policies, and event shocks, is something that everyone has to face. The risks we have ourselves, such as facing high chasing, selling at a loss, and hesitation, are often exacerbated by our lack of systematic training as individuals. Whether you can make money actually depends on whether you have trained a conditioned reflex-shaped response mechanism. The biggest enemy of retail investors is not the market, but their own emotions and lack of training habits. I think these few sentences are also a good summary of this topic.
Alex : Very good. The first is to constantly polish and refine your personal trading system. When the system is not yet perfect, at least you should have a complete trading plan in advance to supplement it.
Judgment on the Shanzhai Season
Alex : Then let's talk about a problem that everyone is concerned about but has always been painful, that is, the issue of Altcoin. In this round of Altcoin, even though there has been a rebound and some improvement in the past two days, it still underperforms BTC and ETH by a large margin. In your next cycle trading plan, do you still include the evaluation and preparation for the altcoin season? Are you still looking forward to the altcoin season? Do you think it will still have a large-scale market and a relatively good wealth effect? Of course, in addition to some secondary targets, including some Altcoin that are smaller than Ethereum, the altcoin season also includes some opportunities on the chain that the chain wanderer teacher pays more attention to.
Chain Nomad : Okay, I will only talk about the on-chain part here, because I am not very familiar with the copycats in the secondary market. I think the primary market has a very obvious cyclical nature. You can understand it as "harvesting crops", which does require such a process. After a period of precipitation of the primary players, the leeks in the market may grow taller, or the leeks grow stronger, and the liquidity is well precipitated. So when some narratives come out, whether it is inscriptions or Memes, leeks flock in, the liquidity of the market will improve, and then the bull market on the primary market chain will also come out, attracting off-site traffic to join and push the market up. But after this round of harvesting of Memes not long ago, I think the leeks have been harvested almost, and it actually needs a process of recuperation before the "distant water" of the primary market will flow again. So my attitude towards the next primary market is still cautious. But I have also observed a change in the meantime, that is, I can clearly feel that the primary market is more concerned about the dealer than before, and now I pay more attention to whether there is a dealer manipulating the market. For example, in the recent PK between the popular PUMP and BONK platforms, it is obvious that BONK is a market maker that is trying to attract people to play in the market. So if you still want to participate in the first-level opportunities recently, you must follow the market maker and don’t play those with high retail investor content. The lower the retail investor content, I think the potential of this market may be greater. This is an obvious change I have observed.
Then I also have a question for Alex and Colin. Recently, people may have some illusions about Ethereum again. I also saw many voices that Ethereum may also achieve a two-fold increase after reaching a new high like BTC, which is about an increase of 10,000 points. I would like to hear what the two teachers think.
Alex : OK, this is a separate topic, we will discuss it later. So back to what the chain nomads said just now, they are now waiting for opportunities on the primary chain, waiting for the leeks to recuperate and a new narrative to emerge before striking out. If you insist on operating, you may relatively participate in more projects where the bankers have achievements and clear ideas; while those projects that are simply driven by consensus, community, and emotions will have greater risks at present. What does Colin think of the copycat season?
Colin : I have two main points to share on the topic of altcoin season. The first point is that we all come to this market to make money. As long as we can make money, no one cares whether there is an altcoin season or not. Even if there is no altcoin season, but you can make a lot of money, I believe everyone can accept it. So I think before discussing the altcoin season, we have to go back to a more fundamental issue - when you choose to buy or even operate Altcoin contracts, you must first realize that Altcoin are very volatile. The reason why most retail investors want to buy Altcoin is usually because it has the potential to rise more than Bitcoin. Of course, it will also fall more than Bitcoin when it falls. But I think no matter what your strategy is, you must realize one thing: the decisive factor for every purchase or every order you open is still its expected value. For example, like the lottery, you can make a lot of money if you win once, but the winning rate is very low. This is the relationship between odds and winning rate. For the Altcoin asset, if you want to execute the so-called buy and hold strategy on it today, I think it is not OK, because its expected value should not be positive. Suppose you bought an Altcoin at the beginning of 2024, and then it experienced a wave of sideways trading with Bitcoin, causing the Altcoin to fall by 80%. Even if it rises 4 times later, you still lose money and your cost cannot be recovered. This is a very simple math problem. Regardless of whether the alt season will come or not, or whether you look forward to the alt season or not, I think this proposition itself is not essential enough. Going back to the first principles of the market, if Altcoin want to rise, they need capital inflows. If there is to be an alt season, it means that funds must flow into all the current Altcoin in a large scale to be called a season. But with the current number of Altcoin, it is very difficult for you to achieve the so-called general increase.
Next, let's talk about the second point. Some people may have noticed that in the first wave of the main uptrend in 2024, that is, at the beginning of the year, the Altcoin market actually rose along with Bitcoin. But after a period of painful time, until November, when Trump was elected, Altcoin saw another wave of rise, but this rise was very different from the wave at the beginning of the year. At that time, the rise of Altcoin was in the form of sector rotation. For example, DeFi rose today, platform coins rose tomorrow, and oracle rose the day after tomorrow, etc., which was very obvious. Today, a sector sprayed dozens of points, and another one changed two or three days later. This is no longer the overall general rise at the beginning of the year. I realized at that time: the election of a president who is considered to be crypto-friendly at least in performance, such a major event, brought Bitcoin to a height of more than 100,000, but the market of Altcoin was presented by a round-up. I think this is unreasonable. It should have risen more fiercely, and the round-up means that there is not enough funds. We can imagine that there is a group of smart funds that use the profits after the rise of sector A to engage in sector B, and then sector C, so this round of rise will occur. Since I observed this phenomenon at that time, I have maintained a pessimistic attitude towards the subsequent Altcoin market. Because under the influence of such a big event, there can only be a round of rises, and the direction favored by funds is already very obvious. After all, the entire year of 24 was the stage of Bitcoin, and at the end of the year, there was another round of rises. I personally feel that I have been very pessimistic about the altcoin season from that time to now. Recently, there has been some improvement. In fact, every time the Altcoin market has improved, it is basically linked to the sharp rise of Bitcoin or Ethereum. The key is not whether it has risen, but whether it can be maintained after the rise. The so-called maintenance does not necessarily have to continue to rise, but at least it must be supported at the original position. Suppose an Altcoin rises by 80% and then slowly falls back. This is very painful for the holder, and it may be a process of negative expected value. So back to the first point, in essence, if you want to operate Altcoin today, you must first realize one thing: you are playing a "timing" game. What you need to consider is not whether it can rise more than Bitcoin in the future, but when it falls, once the retracement is too large, even if it rises several times later, you may still not be able to return to the cost line. This situation happened from April to May last year. There were a group of friends of friends around me. At that time, many people felt that the Altcoin had fallen almost enough, so they started to buy the dips. But later many people couldn't help but cut their losses. So I think this experience needs to be shared with everyone, and you should realize that there is a lot of room for upward movement, and the maximum downward movement is 100%. But in fact, if you fall by 80%, you have to rise 5 times to get your money back. So it is called "timing". In other words, buying Altcoin, in addition to buying in the right position, is equivalent to choosing the right time. The trading of Altcoin is not just about betting on fluctuations, time is also a very critical factor.
Alex : I understand, and I spoke very completely. Regarding the issue of the altcoin season, I actually talked about it with the other two guests in the last episode. At that time, I also shared the views within our team, and our current views have not changed from then: we are not optimistic. The conclusion is very simple. Even though the Altcoin have rebounded recently, our judgment is still not optimistic, especially the sustainability of the altcoins. The reason is very direct, that is, the fundamentals of the altcoins are generally very poor. As Colin just said, in fact, this round of disillusionment with the valuation of Altcoin is typical, and it is a round of changes. Around February and March 2024, the performance of Altcoin was a blowout. Everyone felt like they were dreaming back to 2021. They asked about the target in the group every day. Today this one rose, tomorrow that one rose, and everyone was exploding. It felt like the money was going to be desperately sent out. After that round of bubble burst, when Trump was elected in 2024 as Colin just mentioned, Bitcoin pulled up first, and Altcoin also began to rise, but this round of following the rise was obviously insufficient and turned very hesitant. The Altcoin were quickly replaced by the meme coin craze. Without liquidity, no one was enthusiastic about them. This round may be the third round of Altcoin rebound in this cycle, but I personally feel that this round is even weaker. For example, we saw that Ethereum rose by 22% in the past week, but its market value is much smaller than that of its Layer 1 and Layer 2 Altcoin. Most of the increases were less than 22%, and they did not rise higher than Ethereum. This performance can only be said to be trying to follow the rise. Some Altcoin that seem to have a relatively large increase are often because of their large declines in the past. For example, Algo and Story, which is an IP chain, have increased more than Ethereum and have risen by 30% and 40% recently. In fact, they have also fallen more. Therefore, our team's current judgment on Altcoin is still: the fundamentals are not good, the narrative is not good, and the valuation continues to shatter. It can also be understood that this is a manifestation of the market maturing and a process of investor maturity. From this perspective, it is actually quite reasonable.
Preparation for cross-circle investment
Alex : Next, let's move on to the last question that was originally planned for today, and then we can talk about Ethereum-related topics. This question is that many people around us have this situation: many crypto investors and even practitioners currently believe that the opportunities in the industry are rapidly decreasing, so they are starting to prepare to look at some employment and investment opportunities outside the industry, such as US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and even A shares. A shares have actually performed well recently. Do you have any specific views on this matter, or have your own practices changed? Will you also consider some opportunities outside of crypto? We know that Colin is investing in US stocks, and I remember that you seem to buy more indexes. I wonder if you have any plans to start researching some individual US stocks? And on the chain nomads side, do you have any preparations in this regard?
Colin : Yes, I do invest in US stocks, mainly in the index. Regarding the question of whether there will be fewer and fewer opportunities in the crypto industry, I think, as we mentioned earlier, this market is gradually maturing. It is entering the public's field of vision in various forms and through more channels. More and more people are beginning to see Bitcoin and even want to participate in it. And the market value of BTC is indeed growing at a speed that everyone can see. This process is like the evolution of Bitcoin from a barbaric era to a modern technological society. The first thing is that the volatility of the Bitcoin market will be greatly reduced. At the same time, there will be various large institutional funds such as "crocodiles" and "sharks" from the traditional financial market. Whether it is an arbitrage opportunity or a high-frequency trading opportunity, they will want to get a piece of the pie. Once they come in, the dividends will become less and less. This is actually like a game theory. When the opponent becomes stronger, the pie is gradually divided, and the dividends will of course become less and less. Many people are beginning to feel that the crypto market is becoming more and more difficult to do, and that it is not as pure as before. For example, the Shanzhai season failed to materialize in this cycle. As Alex just said, the increase in Ethereum is not much different from the increase in some Layer 1 and Layer 2 Altcoin under its ecosystem, and Ethereum is even slightly better. This can actually be seen from the perspective of the incremental funds of traditional financial institutions. If a large amount of funds flow into Crypto from the outside world, the first target they choose will definitely not be some old-fashioned Altcoin. At most, they will be played for a while and then go to play with other things. If you really want to invest funds in a market for investment today, it is unlikely to go to assets other than Bitcoin. Let's talk about Ethereum again. It now has an ETF and can be traded in the US market. Although it cannot be traded directly, at least there is an exclusive ETF product. So it is possible that it will have a relatively large increase, even higher than traditional Altcoin, because if this round of bull market is dominated by institutional funds, then in addition to Bitcoin, the second target they can choose is of course Ethereum. This sentence makes people feel FOMO, but I don’t mean to say that I am bullish on Ethereum now, because I still respect Bitcoin’s top signal. What I want to say is: if the Bitcoin market continues to evolve in the future, the strong will always be strong. Now Solana is almost going to pass the ETF. Although one of them is not formal and is relatively niche, it has also passed. If Solana has a complete ETF purchase channel like Ethereum in the future, I still believe that when external funds consider investment allocation, the first choice will be Bitcoin, the second will be Ethereum, and there is no third one at present. This is my personal bias at present. Will there be fewer and fewer opportunities? From the perspective I just described, of course it will. But if you want to express it more precisely, it should be said that it will be more and more difficult to obtain excess returns in this market. If you are still a believer in Bitcoin and a holder, then you just need to hold Bitcoin firmly. As the off-market funds continue to flow in, they are actually helping you to carry the sedan chair and help you take over the market. You are actually the most reassuring type of person. But if you hope to earn excess returns through Bitcoin or even other currencies and beat Bitcoin's performance, then the difficulty will definitely rise vertically. Because your opponents are a group of experienced traditional financial players who have been operating for decades. These people are all crocodiles and sharks. If you want to be their opponents, it will be very difficult. This is where the real difficulty lies. But then again, the Bitcoin market is less than 20 years old so far. Compared with traditional stock markets, foreign exchange, commodities, raw materials, etc., it is still a very new market. So the opportunities in the circle may be reduced, but compared with other mature markets, it still has many opportunities and dividends. You can imagine that when the Bitcoin market is more than a hundred years old, compared with the stock market, the stock market is still relatively mature, and Bitcoin will still be a relatively young asset. Of course, as time goes by, the volatility will become smaller and smaller, and the opponents will become stronger and stronger. This is understandable. At this stage, it is less than 20 years old, and there are still many opportunities compared with other markets.
Chain Nomad : I think this question actually depends on the size of the funds. The smaller the size of the funds, the higher the growth efficiency of the crypto. I also plan to make some allocations in the three directions of encryption, US stocks, and Hong Kong stocks in the future. There are mainly two considerations: the first is to reduce my own risks. After all, if the funds are concentrated in the crypto, there will definitely be risks. The second is to expand the hitting zone of my own transactions. In other words, I hope that when opportunities arise in the US or Hong Kong stocks in the future, I can also participate better.
Still bullish on Ethereum?
Alex: Finally, let's talk about the issue of Ethereum that the online vagrant just raised. Ethereum's recent rebound is still quite strong. From the lowest point of this wave, it should have fallen below 1400, and now it has risen to more than 3400. Recently, the comments that are bullish on Ethereum have become very frequent. In addition, listed companies are buying a large number of Ethereum, and the number of listed companies using Ethereum as reserves is increasing every day. Can the subsequent increase in Ethereum achieve a gap in the exchange rate of Bitcoin? Can it rise to a level of 8,000 or even 10,000? Let me first talk about my personal opinion.
First of all, I think the fundamentals of Ethereum have not improved much at present. This is the first point. It is different from Bitcoin. The fundamentals of Bitcoin in this round have been significantly improved compared with the previous two cycles, including the expansion of legal channels and the consensus on its leading non-sovereign asset electronic gold, which has been further strengthened at the institutional and national levels. More sovereign institutions are buying, and state-level reserve funds are being established, although the number of reserve funds established is lower than our expectations last year. As for the purchase of Bitcoin by the US federal reserve fund that we talked about last year, this matter has basically no shadow in this round of Trump's policy cycle, and there is no expected progress. The margin is improving. I think it has risen to this stage, which is less than twice the increase in the previous round. I think it is still quite reasonable. But I think the fundamentals of Ethereum are worse than the previous cycle. Because in the previous cycle, Ethereum, as a smart contract platform, is itself a computer system, which can be understood as a platform that provides on-chain computing resources. The premise for the system to be valuable is that there are enough applications and ecosystems running on it, and there is enough demand for the system's resources, so that its valuation can be supported.
But in fact, all the public chains in this round, even including SOL, which has risen well in this round, have much worse applications than in the previous round. It’s just that the transaction volume and activity of meme in this round are higher than in the previous round. This may be one of the reasons why SOL has a relatively good increase. After all, it is the main battlefield of meme. However, Ethereum’s resource requirements and business data in all aspects are not as good as in the previous round. In addition, there are many more Rollups in this round, and users and applications are diverted to the second layer in large numbers. After the upgrade of the second layer in Cancun, the consumption of Ethereum resources has been further weakened, so these are the main reasons for its poor fundamentals. Of course, a large part of the purchase funds come from US stocks and Wall Street, including after the emergence of ETFs. Ethereum’s surge this time is mainly due to funds from US stocks and Wall Street. But I think even if the source of funds is the same, their long-term views on Bitcoin and Ethereum are still different. The fundamentals of Bitcoin have been discussed. It is electronic gold, and this positioning will not be shaken during this cycle. Ethereum is essentially a computer system, more like a technology company. Its fundamentals have not improved even when the price has risen. We can see that Ethereum has risen so much in the past few days, but its average on-chain Gas price is still at 1-2, which is very dry. It was not even so low during the bear market in 2022, but this is the norm for Ethereum this year.
So I think this fundamental has long-term traction on the price. With such a fundamental background, it is difficult to expect it to rise as many times as Bitcoin. Because if it reaches 10,000, it means it has doubled, which is equivalent to Bitcoin. If Ethereum reaches 10,000, Bitcoin cannot still be at the current 120,000. It is likely to rise to 140,000-150,000, which is equivalent to doubling both. But from the perspective of fundamental improvement, Ethereum is not as good as Bitcoin, so I think it is difficult for it to reach 10,000, and it is difficult to go out of the trend of double the previous round of market. But it does not mean that I am not optimistic about Ethereum's future rise. The main driving force for Ethereum's rise now is still the so-called flywheel of funds of coin-share companies. The reason why it can rise so much is that the flywheel of coin-share companies with Ethereum reserves as the theme is still turning. The landmark event that this flywheel can turn is that many people originally believed that only recognized large companies like MicroStrategy could raise enough money from the secondary market to issue additional shares, and then buy Bitcoin to realize this cycle. This cycle has been verified and run through many rounds.
Many people initially did not see that Ethereum's reserve company could achieve such a flywheel. Currently, this flywheel seems to have run smoothly from late June to mid-July. Projects represented by SharpLink (code name: Sbet) can raise hundreds of millions of dollars every week, and these hundreds of millions of dollars can also be used to buy Ethereum. After the flywheel starts to turn, Ethereum rises, and this company continues to rise, forming a positive cycle of wealth effect. The purchasing funds in the United States, including many retail investors, are also "dumb money". As long as they find that the price has risen, they will think that the strategy is good and the company is good, and they will buy further and provide funds to these companies to buy Ethereum. This flywheel is currently turning. As for where the positive cycle of prices can end, it is not clear at present.
But I personally think that if we want to rely on this flywheel to rise to 8,000 or 10,000, I think it is relatively difficult. However, Ethereum also has some expectations for fundamental improvements. At present, it can only be called expectations. In fact, Vitalik talked about it more than a month ago that Ethereum’s important goal this year is to achieve a tenfold expansion of performance, and also gave a clear time node before the end of this year. I think the overall depression of applications is a problem of all public chains, and one company cannot change it. But if the performance can be expanded tenfold, at least it can regain the market share that was previously taken away by SOL, BNB Chain, and some high-performance chains, including some market share of the second layer. It can regain some users, transaction volume and developers, which is definitely good for stabilizing the overall valuation. Based on this point, I switched part of my Bitcoin position to Ethereum about a month ago, but not a lot. At that time, because of concerns about fundamentals, I did not expect Ethereum to rise at all. I might have guessed that it would rise, but I did not expect it to be in this form and for this reason. This is my current general view of Ethereum.
Colin : I think Alex has shared with you a very detailed description and research on the fundamentals of Ethereum. I don’t have as detailed a description of the fundamentals of Ethereum as Alex, but I think there is an angle that you can think about. As Alex just mentioned, companies like SharpLink have been buying and buying recently. If I remember correctly, its current holdings should be around 300,000. I think this purchase volume is already exaggerated. He has been raising funds and wants to imitate MicroStrategy. But the reason why that system can have a very strong effect on Bitcoin, and even more and more companies are imitating MicroStrategy and using BTC as their own company reserves, is that there is a premise that Bitcoin is limited. I think this matter is very important. Because it is limited.
Suppose there are more and more companies like MicroStrategy. After buying, they will not sell. They will keep the stocks there for a long time until they are forced to sell them. Once this is done, it is equivalent to locking up the only supply in the market. It is of course a good thing for Bitcoin, because the reduction in supply is naturally good news for the price. But Ethereum is not like that. Ethereum has a so-called evaporation mechanism, and it has an inflation rate. I think this matter itself still has to go back to the fundamentals that Alex just mentioned. If Ethereum itself does not have a very novel and revolutionary application today, and if its gas fee remains at that low level, then Ethereum will continue to increase.
Even if these companies keep buying, they can’t raise unlimited funds to buy all the Ethereum on the market and then make the market unable to buy Ethereum. This won’t happen because Ethereum will continue to increase, unlike Bitcoin. So I think the effect of limited and unlimited, whether it is the so-called treasury reserve or strategic reserve of these companies, is actually significantly different.
Back to the question just now, I think 10,000 is a bit too far away from the current price. I personally don't like to shout prices, because first, it's too far ahead. It's only around 3,400 now. We want to see 10,000 unless we have a very clear valuation model or a very clear reason. We should at least evaluate the amount of funds flowing in, or have data support from some other aspects. But if it is just because of some news, or because everyone is very optimistic and buying Ethereum, it may reach 10,000. I think this cannot be quantified, the basis is not enough, and it is not convincing to me. I don't accept the voices in the market that shout to 10,000. As long as this asset rises, there will be people shouting higher and higher. I think it is important for each of us market participants not to be carried away by emotions when judging the rise of Ethereum. Has the fact that it originally existed disappeared now? Or are there any new facts? This goes back to the fundamentals mentioned by Alex just now. Its gas fee is still as low, which means that there has not been any revolutionary development or new invention on the chain that would give it a reason to burn more ETH.
If not, then this wave of rise is completely a simple supply and demand principle: there are many buyers and few sellers, so those companies continue to buy, especially SharpLink, which buys at an incredible speed. It has bought 300,000 units in just a few weeks. If this is really the reason for the rise, then there is no fundamental logic behind it. We can use a more exaggerated description to say that this may be a bubble. Of course, the bubble may not burst, but it is at least not a completely healthy rise. It is not because of the improvement of fundamentals that the value has increased, but the price has increased.
If the value doesn't move, it's a bubble. The probability of a bubble bursting is always higher than the probability of a decline during a healthy rise. So I think for us, especially if you haven't reduced your position in Ethereum, or you see Ethereum rising all the time, some people are calling for 8,000, and some people are calling for 10,000, you should be especially careful. It's not that it won't rise in the future, and I also agree that we can't accurately assess how much it can rise now. But FOMO or emotions can never be a reason to buy.
I think this is something everyone should remind themselves, including myself. In fact, I was also tempted to buy when I saw Ethereum rise, but the discipline is here. You can't regret missing the rise of Ethereum and then buy impulsively. I think this is all noise and will not increase your trading expectations. I will not make trading decisions based on this emotion.
Alex : Let me add one more small point. In fact, I think it is reasonable for Ethereum to rise to 4,000 or 5,000. We know that the highest point of Ethereum in the last round was about 4,600 or 4,700. If it rises to 4,000 or 5,000, it will return to the high point of the last round. The highest point of Bitcoin in the last round was 69,000, and now it has reached a new high of about 120,000. We just said that the fundamentals of Ethereum in this round are inferior to those in the previous round, while Bitcoin is better than the previous round. So it is reasonable for Bitcoin to reach a new high, and it is also reasonable for Ethereum to be slightly higher than the previous round.
Because this round of Ethereum's rise from 1400 to more than 3000, the greater driving force is not the fundamentals, but the valuation repair. There are several core points behind the valuation repair: the first is these institutions represented by SharpLink, which is backed by the founder of Consensus, the co-founder of Ethereum, who formed such a consortium to buy Ethereum. Another point was mentioned by a former colleague at our internal track meeting this morning. He said that when SharpLink was first established, the stock price rose from a few dollars to more than 100, then fell to 30 or 40, and finally fell back to a few dollars, going up and down all the way, and sideways for a while. But in late June, they began to raise funds. Although the amount was not large at the beginning, it was only 20 to 30 million US dollars. The premium was not high at that time, unlike now when hundreds of millions can be raised in a week. The one who broke this situation was Tom Lee, a very influential figure on Wall Street. In June, he became the chairman of Bitmine, an important buyer of Ethereum. He has always been optimistic about Ethereum and has been intensively bullish on Ethereum this year.
Because he is an influential representative of Wall Street and served as the chairman of a company that focuses on hoarding Ethereum, this landmark event ignited the expectations of Wall Street funds and US retail investors for the revaluation of Ethereum. So ETH rose from more than 1,000 and more than 2,000 to more than 3,000. This is the cause and effect and background. If there is no Tom Lee, SharpLink's flywheel may not be able to turn, and the stock price may still be hovering around more than ten US dollars. There are many preconditions for this rise. Our understanding of this matter can actually help us consider other investment opportunities. Now I see that many people are also saying that the flywheel of Ethereum has started to turn and Bitcoin has run smoothly. Then can we layout the flywheel of coins and stocks of other cryptocurrencies? For example, can we buy those who hoard SOL? Can we buy those who hoard hype? In the past two days, there have been more and more listed companies hoarding BNB. Are these opportunities? Then we have to see whether these tokens have the preconditions for the flywheel to turn like Ethereum.
I think the first premise has been mentioned just now: Do these listed companies have the ability to raise funds in the secondary market very smoothly? Can they raise tens of millions or even hundreds of millions to buy coins? At present, there are not many companies like SOL and hype that raise large amounts of funds from the market to buy coins. They do not have such strong financing capabilities, and are more likely to raise funds through private placements or private placements, rather than buying from the secondary market with sufficient liquidity.
The second point is whether there is a person like Tom Lee who is influential enough on Wall Street to ignite their revaluation of the value of this asset? We need to realize that Ethereum fell from more than 1,000 or 2,000 US dollars, and then rose back. But tokens like BNB, SOL, and Hype are currently at relatively high prices and are not oversold. So can they spray again at high prices? I think this difficulty is much greater than the valuation repair logic of Ethereum. So when we talk about this issue, we need to specifically analyze whether these assets have the prerequisites for the Ethereum flywheel to turn.
At the same time, we should also pay attention to their current price, which is also different from Ethereum. As you can hear, we are cautious in our judgment of the investment opportunities of derivative coin stocks. They may be able to take over some of the attention that overflows from Ethereum coin stocks and obtain some short-term incremental funds. So we also see that SOL-related listed companies have risen a lot in the past two days, and have risen by a lot of points. But that may be more of a rise caused by the outflow of attention and funds. As for whether these coin stocks can form a systematic rise like Ethereum, I personally am cautious.
Today's podcast recording took quite a while, and has gone beyond the original topic we set. We also talked about some things about Ethereum. Thank you to the two guest teachers for sharing today.
