These days, the market has started to oscillate, Altcoins are silent, and while BTC is resilient, its market dominance trend actually reveals many market signals.
BTC Market Dominance "Battle": Another Challenge to the 50-Week Moving Average
BTC's market dominance has recently rebounded to around 62%, once again testing the 50-week moving average - the last time this trend occurred was in early December last year.
This moving average now acts like a watershed. If BTC's market dominance falls below this line, it might be a prelude to a collective Altcoin resurgence. After all, in the two market trends of 2024, each market dominance decline has been accompanied by an Altcoin explosion. By the way, the "Altcoin Index" recently dropped from its high of 60 to 45, which is far from crazy compared to the two 75+ instances earlier this year.
ETH's two major surges were accompanied by extreme trading volume spikes - once in early May, and once recently. After each volume surge, a local top quickly appeared, a typical "FOMO entry-profit-taking" pattern. Therefore, ETH would only have a chance to start a new market phase if it truly breaks through and stabilizes above $4,000. Currently, this psychological level remains the core point suppressing short-term sentiment.
For this Doge pullback, I focused on three on-chain indicators:
① Realized Price: $0.1568
This is actually the "average holding cost line" for Doge. Historically, except during extreme bear markets, when the price drops near this line, the DCA strategy has been quite effective. Since BTC officially started its bull run in January 2023, Doge has taken off from the bottom 4 times, each time related to the support line near this moving average.
② Cost Distribution Heatmap: Dense at $0.07
Over five years, Doge's most dense buying area is around $0.07. Each Doge rally sees early buyers in this area choosing to reduce positions, making this zone both a support and a critical liquidity release point.
Those who chased in at high prices last year have lowered their average cost to the $0.18-$0.21 range through several additional purchases. This area has become an important "cost support band".
③ URPD Indicator: $0.36 is Resistance
The URPD histogram shows a large number of trapped positions at $0.36, with a thick chip distribution, making it a typical resistance zone. Long-term, this might be a tough hurdle in this market cycle.
Overall, these three lines point to one fact: Doge is currently in a "consolidation and bottoming" phase, far from entering a true upward cycle.
BTC Remains on Bull Market Trajectory, Altcoins Still Need "One Final Push"
From realized price to long-term and short-term cost lines, BTC has already broken through. It remains in a bull market structure, which is the basis of my market rhythm assessment. However, Altcoins are not as strong, with many coins unable to stabilize above the 200-week moving average, performing even worse than stablecoins. A more noteworthy detail is: The realized market cap percentage of short-term holders (holding time <1 month) has not yet returned to historical bull market peaks. This means market sentiment is far from overheated, with room for further upside.
Altcoins Are Not Without Opportunity, Just Not Their Turn Yet
Whether it's ETH, Doge, or more Altcoins, they are all in a "waiting for confirmation" rhythm. A weakening BTC market dominance would be the true Altcoin counterattack signal.
When FOMO starts to "burn", Coinbase ranks at the top of the list, and holding cost lines comprehensively turn green, Altcoins will welcome their main upward stage. My current strategy remains conservative - focusing on BTC for the main position and selecting a few old coins with fundamentals intact. When to charge, I'll wait for the market's signal.
That's it for the article! If you're feeling lost in the crypto world, consider joining me in layout and harvesting from market makers! Follow the public account: Crypto Meow y
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