Ethereum is currently experiencing strong accumulation and tight circulating supply, but persistent leverage positions may lead to a deep dip before a breakout surge.
Despite on-chain indicators reflecting significant capital inflow into Ethereum, liquidation of leverage positions still threatens the market with the potential for a strong correction to clear leverage before a sustainable upward trend emerges.
- Strong accumulation signs and new Stablecoin capital flow indicate Ethereum's potential for a surge, but high leverage capacity may cause short-term volatility.
- Large ETH withdrawals from exchanges and the release of 2 billion USDT from Tether signal positive indicators, preparing for a new liquidity phase.
- A short-term price dip scenario may occur to clear leverage positions, after which Ethereum is likely to break out strongly if on-chain support is maintained.
| Time | ETH Withdrawal Volume from Exchange (USD) | New USDT Issuance (USD) | ETH Price Result after 30 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | 900 million | 2 billion | Awaiting confirmation (forecast increase if flush is successful) |
| March 2024 | 810 million | 1.2 billion | Increased 15% |
| December 2023 | 450 million | 600 million | Increased 9% |
The above table shows a close relationship: after each large capital withdrawal cycle and Stablecoin issuance, ETH price always experiences a strong wave of increase in the next month. This repeated coincidence helps increase the probability of an upward momentum in the current accumulation phase.
What do experts say about Ethereum's short-term and medium-term scenarios?
Experts and exchange CEOs believe Ethereum is facing a significant opportunity for a long-term upward trend, but in the short term, investors need to be mentally prepared for unexpected correction to eliminate over-leveraged investors.
The ideal scenario for ETH is a short-term sharp decline to wash away weak leverage, thereby allowing prices to surge strongly when supply weakens and on-chain capital continues to accumulate.
Michael van de Poppe, CEO MN Trading, Twitter/X on 25/7/2025
Market experience shows that in "tense balance" stages between whales and small investors, the latter often face high risks due to strong volatility aimed at cleaning the market. However, according to historical data on Funding Rate and Open Interest, every decisive leverage squeeze is usually a solid premise for the next price wave.
Why do Funding Rate and Open Interest create adjustment pressure?
A neutral Funding Rate and simultaneously decreasing Open Interest signal that investors are reducing speculation, processing leverage positions, and shifting to a waiting strategy for new opportunities.
When Funding Rate approaches 0, it means Long and Short positions in the derivative market are balanced, thereby limiting the risk of sudden strong volatility.
Glassnode report, June 2025
However, precisely because of this balanced state, just a small shock event can cause a chain liquidation of leveraged positions (long squeeze or short squeeze). This flush helps clear weak positions, paving the way for large capital flows to lead the next trend.
Practical Analysis: Impact of Leverage "Flush" on Ethereum Price Wave
According to data from Coinglass and BitMEX Research, leverage "flush" events in 2021 and 2023 saw ETH prices drop sharply by 7-15%, but then recovered over 20% when investment capital strongly returned.
For example, in June 2023, after liquidating over 500 million USD in leverage positions, ETH jumped from 1,650 USD to a peak of 2,080 USD in just 15 days. This repeated in March 2024 with similar liquidation movements, playing a crucial role in creating a new price wave.
This is an important lesson for investors: prolonged confrontation between whales and small investors rarely ends peacefully, and accepting certain short-term flush adjustments is actually a safe entry point for medium to long-term upward trends.
Comprehensive Perspective: Strong ETH Supply Reduction, Leverage "Fuse" Still Exists
Despite large waves of ETH withdrawal from exchanges and abundant new capital from Tether, the Ethereum market still harbors risks of deep embedding due to unresolved Long leverage positions, especially in the 3,780 USD - 3,900 USD range.
However, the difference this time is on-chain capital accumulation combined with "supply shock" from exchange withdrawals, supporting reduced selling pressure and making the post-flush price surge more sustainable than previous cycles. According to CryptoQuant CEO, if new capital doesn't withdraw but continues to stay in the ecosystem, the price increase scenario is strongly supported from technical analysis to on-chain macro data.
ETH is closely following the "short-term speed reduction - long-term acceleration" model, commonly seen in price bottom formation phases, a premise for the next price cycle.
Ki Young Ju, CryptoQuant CEO, observation in July 2025
Key Factors for Ethereum Investors to Monitor Closely in the Next Quarter
To guide and prevent risks when investing in Ethereum, traders should pay special attention to:
- Developments in Funding Rate and Open Interest on major exchanges
- Whether Stablecoin flow into/out of Ethereum ecosystem continues to maintain large increases
- ETH volume withdrawn from/deposited to exchanges, especially large Cold Storage transfer events
- On-chain accumulation signals and whale activities
- Liquidation position heat map to determine sudden flush risks
These are key indicators that can help prepare for large short-term fluctuations while effectively leveraging sustainable long-term price waves. Investors should maintain management discipline and avoid high leverage when the market remains sensitive to short-term flush events.
Comparison of ETH Exchange Withdrawal Peak Impact with Notable Growth Cycles
| Cycle | ETH Withdrawal Volume in 1 Day (USD) | ETH Price Movement 14 Days After | Accompanying Stablecoin Capital Flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 2021 | 615 million | +13.5% | 700 million USDT |
| June 2022 | 463 million | +11.2% | 580 million USDT |
| July 2025 | 900 million | Ongoing | 2 billion USDT |
Data on strong ETH exchange withdrawals accompanied by Stablecoin issuance consistently opens new growth phases, according to Glassnode and TinTucBitcoin statistics.
Conclusion: Ethereum's Major Trend - Conditions Ripening for a Strong, Sustainable Price Wave?
Combining on-chain indicators, capital flow data, and whale accumulation strategies, Ethereum is converging key factors for a sustainable price increase cycle. Its attractiveness is enhanced by abundant USDT flow and large ETH withdrawals from exchanges - two crucial "engines" reducing selling pressure and opening paths for new capital entering the market.
Despite the risk of a sharp adjustment due to high leveraged Longing positions, history has proven that after each strong flush, there is an ideal investment opportunity with high profit rates if the right strong support zone is selected. Experienced investors often take advantage of short-term market corrections to accumulate in preparation for a long-term growth state when all factors are consistent.
The ideal scenario is that after a decline to flush out weak leverage, Ethereum's upward momentum will become more solid, recording a prolonged acceleration wave due to the synergy between low supply and high demand across the entire ecosystem.
Frequently Asked Questions
Ethereum is accumulating strongly, but why is the price still fluctuating?
Pressure from large leverage positions and cautious sentiment prevent ETH from breaking through despite good on-chain accumulation, according to analysis from CryptoQuant.
How will the issuance of 2 billion USDT affect Ethereum's price?
New USDT capital flows are often a forecast for price increases by creating liquidity basis and supporting Ethereum purchases, according to Ali Martinez.
What does the withdrawal of 244,000 ETH from Coinbase mean?
This is a signal of whale long-term accumulation and reduction of circulating supply, typically paving the way for an ETH price surge, sourced from glassnode.
How can one recognize an imminent leverage flush cycle?
Observe large Longing position growth near resistance, neutral Funding Rate, and liquidation heat map on major derivative exchanges.
How does leverage flush affect Ethereum's price?
After a strong leverage flush, supply is absorbed and ETH price typically surges back strongly, as observed through multiple historical cycles.
When should one enter/exit orders during market volatility?
Investors should wait for major volatility to subside, confirm accumulation signals, and then enter orders safely to optimize profits, sourced from TinTucBitcoin.
Are Stablecoin flows an market trend indicator?
Yes, each large Stablecoin capital flow typically leads to price increases for major assets in the cryptocurrency market, according to the 2024 glassnode report.
