Like the past few Sunday evenings, there was a small market movement last night, again led by ETH, breaking through $3,800, with SUI also gaining momentum over the weekend, once rising above $4.4, and BNB creating a new high, clearing nearly $15 million in short positions during the low-volume weekend. Bitcoin continues to hover around $119,000, with even lower trading volume than Ethereum, continuing to oscillate within a narrow range.
VX: TZ7971
The reason for ETH's rise is likely due to financial experts and institutions continuing to shill over the weekend, including Tom Lee, Cathie Wood, BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, and Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley all publicly praising ETH. Additionally, the two main ETH reserve companies, BitMine and SharpLink Gaming, continued to increase their positions before the weekend, making Ethereum the most favored asset.
Looking ahead to this week, the US will release a large amount of economic data, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on Thursday morning. Predicting market trends will be difficult, with Powell's press conference at 2:30 AM on Thursday being particularly important. The probability of a September rate cut largely depends on his stance, so both the US stock market and crypto market are expected to be quite volatile, and position risk should be carefully monitored.
According to Coinglass data, if Ethereum breaks through $4,000, the cumulative short liquidation intensity of mainstream CEXs will reach $979 million.
Conversely, if Ethereum falls below $3,800, the cumulative long liquidation intensity of mainstream CEXs will reach $917 million.
The activity of ETH "new buyers" has been very active since July 20th, indicating strong demand from new funds. Long-term holders (aggressive buyers) continue to accumulate during ETH's price consolidation. Meanwhile, profit-taking sellers are few, suggesting that most profitable holders are not satisfied with ETH's current price, showing strong confidence in holding.
Looking at ETH's on-chain activity data, transaction numbers are approaching the historical high from May 2021, and transfer amounts (in USD value) are rapidly increasing. Although ETH's price remains below the December 24 level (around $4,000), on-chain transfer amounts have already exceeded that period. Transaction numbers represent on-chain activity, while the rise in transfer amounts indicates increasing participation from large funds.
Although Ethereum 2.0 staking data shows nearly 700,000 ETH are currently waiting to exit, indicating an acceleration in token switching from old OGs to new institutions in this cycle, as long as the demand from "new buyers" maintains its positive momentum, the market can absorb any temporary excess supply.
Additionally, statistics show at least 913,111 ETH have been permanently lost due to user errors, representing over 0.76% of ETH supply, valued at approximately $3.43 billion. When combined with ETH burned by EIP-1559 (5.3 million), over 5% of all ETH in history (valued at $23.42 billion) has been permanently destroyed. For Ethereum, these are spiral positive factors.
Today's fear and greed index is 75, still in a greedy state.
The risk of further tariff increases has been eliminated, removing a major macro-negative factor. The agreement between the US and EU is also positive for the stock market, and continued US stock market growth is beneficial to the market. Currently, BTC is at $120,000, and ETH is about to touch $4,000, both at critical positions. Before many US economic data is released and the monetary policy result is known, it is expected to oscillate around these two levels. Keep an eye on the US stock market situation tonight for any signs.
Those holding spot can continue to hold, waiting to see how the economic data and monetary policy result unfold. Those with empty positions should be patient and not enter hastily without a good entry point.
