Chainfeeds Guide:
Only by understanding the essence of these four parallel cycle approaches can one find an appropriate strategy within their respective rhythms.
Article Source:
https://x.com/tmel0211/status/1926854038642901352
Article Author:
Haotian
Perspective:
Haotian: The traditional halving cycle bull market script has become invalid, and Bitcoin is entering a brand new super cycle. BTC has gradually transformed from a speculative asset to an institutional allocation asset, with Strategy, ETF, and Wall Street institutions continuously pouring in, while retail investors are handing over their chips. This restructuring of chip composition has fundamentally changed Bitcoin's price discovery mechanism and volatility characteristics. Retail investors are facing dual pressure from time cost and opportunity cost. Compared to institutions that can easily hold for 3-5 years, retail investors find it difficult to withstand the pressure of long-term positioning. Therefore, Bitcoin may present a stable growth path similar to tech stocks - maintaining an annual return of 20-30%, but with significantly reduced volatility. From this perspective, we might witness a super slow bull cycle lasting over a decade. If retail investors remain obsessed with getting rich quickly in a bull market, they may completely miss this new cycle where the game rules have changed. The essence of MEME is an instant gratification speculative vehicle that doesn't require technical support, a whitepaper, or even a team - just a point that makes people smile can ignite attention. From Dogecoin, Pepe to various AI concept MEMEs, MEME has evolved from a marginal cultural element to an entire emotional monetization industrial chain. More critically, MEME has become a barometer of market sentiment. During bull markets, it's a hot money experimental field; during bear markets, it's a speculative safe haven. However, as the market matures, MEME is transforming from a grassroots playground to an elite competitive arena - scientists, studios, and whales are gradually dominating the entire ecosystem, making it difficult for ordinary people to quickly seize MEME's takeoff opportunities. The high-frequency rotation and attention competition in this field are turning the former MEME market into an extremely professional battlefield. Technical narratives have never disappeared, just obscured by misaligned valuations and narrative rhythms. Hard-core technical projects like ZK, AI Infra, and Layer2 follow the technology maturity curve (Gartner Hype Cycle), not market sentiment cycles. In the death valley stage, many truly promising projects are ignored or even underestimated by the market. For investors with technical judgment and long-term patience, this is the best entry window. Once the technology lands, these projects' value release often presents non-linear leaps, with a 10x return in 3 years being no myth. The only premise is that investors must endure long empty periods, volatile periods, and external skepticism. The non-mainstream nature of this narrative also means it requires long-term attention and early layout, rather than hastily chasing high during the "FOMO phase". The true dividend belongs to those investors who endure loneliness at the bottom, understand trends, and resolutely execute.
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