Chainfeeds Briefing:
In the second half of 2025, the crypto market will be influenced by multiple factors such as tariffs and dollar tides, presenting both opportunities and challenges.
Article Source:
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UYiixRdp2lCZZl4QohWpJA
Article Author:
IOBC Capital
Perspective:
IOBC Capital: The dollar tide cycle refers to the systematic outflow and inflow of the US dollar globally. Although the Federal Reserve did not cut interest rates in the first half of the year, the dollar index has weakened: falling from a high of 110 at the beginning of the year to 96.37, showing a clear "weak dollar" state. The weakening of the dollar may have multiple reasons: First, Trump's tariff policies suppressed trade deficits, disrupted the dollar's circulation mechanism, and weakened the attractiveness of dollar assets, raising market concerns about the stability of the dollar system; Second, fiscal deficits drag down credit, with the continuous rise in US debt scale and interest rates, deepening market doubts about fiscal sustainability; Third, the petrodollar agreement expired without renewal, and global central banks' dollar reserves dropped from 71% in 2000 to 57.7%, with gold reserves increasing, triggering attempts at "de-dollarization"; Additionally, the policy direction reflected in the rumored "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" may have played a boosting role. The US GENIUS Act will be implemented in July 2025, stipulating that "no interest shall be paid to token holders, but reserve interest belongs to the issuer and its purpose must be disclosed." However, it does not prohibit issuers from sharing interest earnings with users, such as Coinbase's USDC with a 12% annual yield. The restriction on paying interest to token holders limits the development of "yield-bearing stablecoins," originally intended to protect US banks and prevent trillions of dollars from flowing out of traditional bank deposits that support loans to businesses and consumers. The US CLARITY Act clearly defines SEC regulation of security tokens and CFTC regulation of commodity tokens (such as BTC, ETH). It introduces the concept of a "mature blockchain system," where regulatory conversion can be achieved through certification - decentralized, open-source blockchain projects that run automatically based on preset rules can be certified (by submitting proof of no centralized control) and be deemed "mature," thus completing a regulatory compliance upgrade from "securities" to "commodities," with regulatory authority completely belonging to CFTC, and SEC no longer exercising securities regulatory rights. Additionally, it provides partial exemptions for DeFi - activities such as writing code, running nodes, providing front-end interfaces, and non-custodial wallets are usually not considered financial services and are exempt from SEC regulation. They only need to comply with basic anti-fraud and anti-manipulation provisions. As Strategy completes an epic transformation with a "Bitcoin strategy," a crypto asset reserve revolution led by listed companies is sweeping the capital markets. From ETH to BNB, SOL, XRP, Doge, HPYE, TRX, LTC, TAO, FET, and more than a dozen mainstream Altcoins are becoming new anchors for corporate treasuries, and this "coin-stock strategy" is becoming this year's market trend. Analyzing this capital alchemy using MicroStrategy's "triple flywheel": 1) Stock-coin resonance flywheel: stock price is long-term premium relative to net asset value (currently 1.61x), creating a low-cost financing channel; fundraising → increasing BTC holdings → pushing up coin prices → amplifying per-share gold content → feeding back valuation, forming a spiral upward closed loop. 2) Stock-debt synergy flywheel: zero-interest convertible bonds cleverly transform debt pressure, with no principal repayment burden, and the conversion right in the company's hands; attracting hedge fund arbitrage capital, injecting low-cost liquidity. 3) Coin-debt arbitrage flywheel: replacing depreciating legal currency debt with appreciating crypto assets, completing long-cycle arbitrage layout.
