Author: tmel0211
Reprint: Blockchain in Plain Language
If you are still holding onto the fantasy of getting rich overnight and dreaming about "ten or hundred-fold opportunities in a bull market," you may have been completely abandoned by the market. Why?
Because smart money has long discovered a secret: The current Crypto no longer applies to one set of strategies, but is running four completely different gameplay cycles simultaneously:
The rhythm, gameplay, and profit logic of each cycle are completely different.
—— Bitcoin Super Cycle: Retail Investors Exit, Ten-Year Slow Bull May Become a Certainty
The "script" of the traditional halving cycle? It has completely failed! BTC has evolved from a "speculative target" to an "institutional asset allocation". The capital volume and allocation logic of Wall Street, listed companies, and ETFs are completely different from the retail investors' "bull and bear switching" approach.
What is the key change? Retail investor chips are being massively transferred, while institutional funds represented by MicroStrategy are frantically entering the market. This fundamental restructuring of chip structure is redefining BTC's price discovery mechanism and volatility characteristics.
What are retail investors facing? The double squeeze of "time cost" and "opportunity cost". Institutions can afford a 3-5 year holding cycle to wait for BTC's long-term value realization, but retail investors? Obviously, they cannot have such patience and capital layout capabilities.
In my view, we are likely to see a BTC super slow bull that lasts for more than ten years. The annual return rate will be stable in the 20-30% range, but with significantly reduced intraday volatility, more like a steady-growing tech stock. As for how high BTC's price ceiling will reach? From the current retail investor perspective, it's even difficult to predict.
—— MEME Attention Short Wave Cycle: From Slum Paradise to Professional Harvesting Ground
The MEME long bull theory is actually valid. During the technical narrative expression gap, MEME narrative will always fill the market's "boredom vacuum" in sync with emotions, funds, and attention.
What is the essence of MEME? It's a speculative vehicle of "instant gratification". No whitepaper needed, no technical verification required, no roadmap necessary, just a symbol that can make people smile or resonate is enough. From cat and dog culture to political MEME, from AI concept packaging to community IP incubation, MEME has evolved into a complete "emotion monetization" industrial chain.
The deadly part is that MEME's "short, fast, and quick" characteristics make it a barometer of market sentiment and a reservoir of funds. When funds are abundant, MEME becomes the first choice for hot money; when funds are scarce, MEME becomes the last speculative safe haven.
However, the reality is cruel. The MEME market is evolving from "grassroots carnival" to "professional competition". The difficulty for ordinary retail investors to profit in this high-frequency rotation is rising exponentially.
The legendary stories of small-scale investors sitting and creating miracles may become fewer and fewer. The entry of studios, scientists, and big players will make this once "slum paradise" increasingly competitive.
—— Technical Narrative Leap-Forward Long Cycle: Buy the Dips in the Death Valley, 10x in 3 Years?
Has the technical narrative disappeared? Impossible. Truly innovative technologies with high barriers, such as Layer2 scaling, ZK technology, AI infrastructure, etc., require 2-3 years or even longer build time to see actual results. Such projects follow the technology maturity curve (Gartner Hype Cycle), not the capital market's emotional cycle - there is a fundamental time misalignment between the two.
The reason why the technical narrative is criticized by the market is completely due to giving too high valuations when the project is still in the conceptual stage, and then experiencing undervaluation in the "death valley" stage when the technology actually starts to land. This determines that the value release of technical projects presents a non-linear, leap-forward characteristic.
For investors with patience and technical judgment, deploying truly valuable technical projects during the "death valley" stage might be the best strategy to obtain excess returns. But the premise is that you must be able to endure a long waiting period, market torment, and potential ridicule.
—— Short Innovative Hot Spot Cycle: 1-3 Month Window Period, Brewing Main Upward Wave Narrative
Before the main technical narrative is formed, various small narratives quickly rotate, from RWA to DePIN, from AI Agent to AI Infra (MCP+A2A), each small hot spot may only have a 1-3 month window period.
This narrative fragmentation and high-frequency rotation reflect the current market's attention scarcity and fund rent-seeking efficiency constraints.
In fact, it's not difficult to find that typical small narrative cycles follow a six-stage model: "Concept Verification → Fund Probing → Public Opinion Amplification → FOMO Entry → Valuation Overdraft → Fund Withdrawal". Want to profit in this pattern?
The key is to enter between the "concept verification" and "fund probing" stages, and exit at the "FOMO entry" peak.
The competition between small narratives is essentially a zero-sum game of attention resources. However, there are technical correlations and conceptual progressive relationships between narratives. For example, MCP (Model Context Protocol) protocol and A2A (Agent-to-Agent) interaction standards in AI Infra are actually a technical underlying reconstruction of the AI Agent narrative. If subsequent narratives can continue the previous hot spot, forming a systematic upgrade linkage, and truly precipitate a sustainable value closed loop in the linkage process, it's likely to give birth to a super big narrative similar to the DeFi Summer with a main upward wave.
From the current small narrative pattern, the AI infrastructure layer is most likely to achieve a breakthrough first. If underlying technologies such as MCP protocol, A2A communication standards, distributed computing power, reasoning, and data networks can be organically integrated, they indeed have the potential to build a super narrative similar to "AI Summer".
That's all.
In summary, understanding the essence of these four parallel gameplay cycles is the key to finding appropriate strategies within their respective rhythms. Undoubtedly, the single "four-year cycle" thinking can no longer keep up with the current market complexity.
Adapting to the new normal of "multiple gameplay cycles running in parallel" may be the key to truly profiting in this bull market.
Article link: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/07/5990.html
Source: https://x.com/tmel0211/status/1926854038642901352
