Compiled by: GaryMa Wu Blockchain
Summary
Wu Blockchain's weekly macro indicators and analysis: Last week, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates as expected, and the US July non-farm employment addition dropped sharply, with May and June data significantly revised downward. This week, attention can be focused on the US implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" on August 7 and the US hope for the Russia-Ukraine conflict to end before August 8.
Last Week Review
Key Events & Indicators This Week
August 05
August 07
August 08
August 09
Summary
Wu Blockchain's weekly macro indicators and analysis: Last week, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates as expected, and the US July non-farm employment addition dropped sharply, with May and June data significantly revised downward. This week, attention can be focused on the US implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" on August 7 and the US hope for the Russia-Ukraine conflict to end before August 8.
Last Week Review
- The Federal Reserve announced an interest rate decision (upper limit) of 4.50%, in line with the expected 4.50%, previous value 4.50%. The FOMC statement noted that economic activity growth slowed in the first half of the year, unemployment remained low, and inflation was still slightly high. The committee will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasury bonds, agency bonds, and agency mortgage-backed securities. Future policy adjustments will depend on a comprehensive assessment of economic data, prospects, and risk balance. According to Caixin, the FOMC voting result was 9 in favor and 2 against, the largest policy divergence in over 30 years. Before the meeting, the market expected a 60% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, but Fed Chair Powell stated that no advance decision would be made on monetary policy. The market expectation of a September rate cut immediately fell to 45%. When asked about the September rate cut prospects, Powell responded that the Fed would make decisions based on various economic data at that time, but would not decide in advance.
- The Bank of Japan maintained interest rates as expected and raised its inflation and economic growth forecasts for this year.
- US ADP employment in July was 104,000, the largest increase since March, expected at 75,000, previous value -33,000.
- US unemployment rate in July was 4.2%, expected 4.20%, previous value 4.10%.
- US non-farm employment addition in July dropped sharply to 73,000, the lowest in 9 months and significantly below the expected 104,000. May and June data were significantly revised downward. May non-farm employment addition was revised down by 125,000, from the original 144,000 to 19,000; June was revised down by 133,000, from 147,000 to 14,000. After this revision, employment additions in May and June decreased by 258,000.
- US Q2 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value was 2.5%, expected 2.3%, previous value 3.50%.
- US Q2 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value was 3%, expected 2.4%, previous value -0.50%.
- US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26 were 218,000, expected 224,000, previous value 217,000.
- US June core PCE price index year-on-year was 2.8%, expected 2.70%, previous value revised from 2.70% to 2.8%.
Key Events & Indicators This Week
August 05
- UK, US, France, Germany, Eurozone July Services PMI
August 07
- Bank of England interest rate resolution, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report (19:00)
- US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 2 (10,000s) (20:30)
- US begins implementing "reciprocal tariffs"
August 08
- Bank of Japan publishes July monetary policy meeting committee opinion summary (07:05)
- US hopes Russia-Ukraine conflict ends before August 8
August 09
- China July CPI year-on-year (09:30)
