Global M2 Shows Bitcoin Could Peak in September

New macro signals emerging in early August could shape the broader market trend. Most notably, the global M2 money supply – an important indicator reflecting global economic liquidation – has just confirmed a decline after reaching an All-Time-High.

What does this new M2 signal mean? Below are the latest insights from analysts.

Is the cryptocurrency price surge nearing its end as global M2 declines?

Data from Bgeometrics shows the global M2 money supply peaked at $114.8 trillion at the end of June. By early August, it had dropped to $112.7 trillion – a 1.8% decrease.

Although the decline is not significant, investor Brett points out that the global M2 has formed both a "lower high" and a "lower dip". This pattern suggests a potential downward trend is forming.

The chart provided by ₿rett illustrates the strong correlation between the Bitcoin price cycle and global M2, with an 84-day offset. Based on this, he predicts that Bitcoin may peak in late September.

"Global M2 has formed a lower high and lower dip. Using an 84-day offset, the current peak is expected in late September. As mentioned in my December post below, the previous three Bitcoin peaks occurred 525–532 days after halving. The current global M2 peak is 518 days after halving. Coincidence?" ₿rett said.

Analyst Master Kenobi offers a similar prediction. He compared Bitcoin prices with global M2 supply using a 90-day offset. Based on this model, he predicts the current Bitcoin cycle will end in October 2025, followed by a significant correction.

"Money supply seems to have reached a local peak 31 days ago and has entered a decline phase... Based on M2 and current data, the signal pumping cycle end should occur from late September to early October." – Master Kenobi predicted.

The recent M2 decline seems to be making analysts more cautious.

Not all analysts are rushing to conclusions. Colin Talks Crypto agrees that the recent M2 decline is the strongest in seven months. However, he also notes that current data may not be reliable.

Colin also agrees that September and October could be sensitive periods. However, he does not rule out the possibility that this is just a secondary peak.

"Instead of hastily drawing conclusions with incomplete data, I think continuing to monitor the global M2 line in the coming weeks is our best approach," Colin Talks Crypto said.

Although forecasts based on 84–90 day offsets and halving cycles provide an interesting picture, the cryptocurrency market remains heavily influenced by other factors. Important economic events, such as potential Fed rate cuts, geopolitical developments, and global investor sentiment, can all change the current trend.