On August 3rd, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that due to multiple macro negative factors such as non-farm employment data falling short of expectations (73,000 vs. expected 110,000), the Federal Reserve's fifth consecutive pause with internal disagreements, and escalating tariff tensions, the global market shifted to "risk-off" mode: S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded their worst performance since April, US Treasury yields dropped nearly 20 basis points, and gold saw capital inflows.
Bitcoin was simultaneously under pressure, quickly retracing from its high of $119,800 to $112,000, with 30-day momentum declining to +3%, and ADX sliding to 36, indicating weakened short-term bullish momentum. On-chain activity decreased, but platform outflows still show ongoing market accumulation.
Despite short-term increased volatility, the structural bullish logic remains unchanged. Strategy and institutions have added over 30,000 BTC in the past week, options market Max Pain remains stable at $118,000, with high strike price call positions dominating. The SEC-initiated "Crypto Project" is also expected to alleviate long-term regulatory pressure on the industry.
If Bitcoin maintains support at $110,000–$113,000 and momentum rebounds to 8%–10% or higher, the market may retest the $119,000–$122,000 range; if it breaks below $110,000, it may retrace to $105,000–$107,000. In the coming weeks, the interplay between macro risks and institutional buying will determine the next phase's direction.
