Market optimism dissipates, and adjustment quietly arrives, with Bitcoin falling 9% from its historical high, and Altcoins generally retracing 20%-30%.
In early August, the market was hit by a fierce sell-off, with a single-day liquidation scale of over $1.5 billion. The core issue is: Are the reasons for this decline serious? How should we respond?
VX: TZ7971
The core trigger for this adjustment lies in the latest developments from the Americans:
New tariff policy proposal;
Escalating geopolitical uncertainty;
Contradictory macroeconomic data.
First, focus on the exhausting "new tariff proposal". Over 66 countries are listed in the potential tariff increase list - the same old routine. Each time it seems like "the old script is replaying", even giving a sense of "market manipulation".
However, the Americans obviously won't risk an economic recession just for these tariffs.
Market pullbacks caused by such operations are already familiar. Retail investors often view such news as major negative signals and overreact.
Recall how many times such tariff threats have been announced? And how many times has the market subsequently reached new highs?
Therefore, there's no need to worry excessively; this is an old story.
Besides tariffs, the recently increased geopolitical risks have also intensified unease. The trigger: Americans deploying two nuclear submarines near Russia. Is this worrying? Indeed.
But thinking calmly: Does anyone really believe a nuclear war will break out in 2025? This is more likely a "pressure tactic" aimed at pushing forward negotiations.
However, what truly troubles American economic decision-makers (like the Federal Reserve) is the chaotic labor market macroeconomic data.
The market's previous bet on a "Federal Reserve policy shift" (rate cut) expectation has fallen through.
More critically, the NFP data for May-June was drastically revised down by nearly 10 times, severely shaking market confidence in the overall macroeconomic data reliability.
Ultimately, multiple factors form a powerful "combination punch":
Persistently high interest rates;
Increasing signs of economic cooling.
These factors combined have led to a significant decline in institutional investor demand this week. The Bitcoin spot ETF even recorded its first net outflow.
How to judge the future market?
Currently, no major economy can create sufficient credit growth to support continuous GDP expansion.
Key support levels are: Bitcoin $110,000, Ethereum $3,200.
Expected by September, the Federal Reserve will have no choice but to initiate rate cuts to re-stimulate the market:
Inflation data has significantly declined;
The job market is under pressure;
Powell seems intent on delaying the rate cut decision.
When the time point approaches, the market is expected to restart an upward trend.
Historical patterns show that after each similar FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt), the market will experience a strong rebound.
Referencing the chart linking M2 money supply and Bitcoin price, the conclusion is clear: Market trends follow liquidity, and the global liquidity environment remains generally loose.
Therefore, the current volatility is essentially a global market game superimposed with FUD.
Looking towards autumn, with the rate cut cycle beginning, main funds are expected to massively flow back, thereby launching a true "Altcoin season".
At that time, it will be a critical window for actively locking in profits.
View the current fluctuation as an opportunity to accumulate positions. The market landscape is evolving, and such low-price buying windows may not last long. Now is the time to build positions step by step, reserve chips, and wait for the October to December market.
Today's panic index is 60, maintain a greedy state.
If the market rebounds as expected, BTC and ETH return to $115,000 and $3,600 levels, which are exactly the price support points before Friday's big drop. If they can establish a bottom at this position this week, the market outlook will be relatively optimistic. If not, they might return to $112,000.
US stocks also rebounded significantly last night. This week, attention should be on the statements of Federal Reserve board members after Wednesday and the unemployment claims report on Thursday, which will likely be neither good nor bad.
The market is currently at a delicate point, with bulls and bears locked in a tug of war. The expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, tariffs, and inflation are overlapping. Lowering risk is most appropriate now, reduce leverage and stock up at low prices, and buy the coins you're optimistic about at a discount.
